Beware Global Cooling?

10 10 2009

H/T to long-time member Steve, our very own Encyclopedia of current events.

Let's party!

Let's party!

There is a lot to argue over in the article below, but one thing that has become abundantly clear, Global Warming is NOT happening. Those that still cling to that nonsense are foolish. Agenda can cloud people’s ability to process facts, data, and logic properly, so while they argue over inconsequential details, I will stick with reality.

Gio-

What happened to global warming?

By Paul Hudson
Climate correspondent, BBC News

This headline may come as a bit of a surprise, so too might that fact that the warmest year recorded globally was not in 2008 or 2007, but in 1998.

But it is true. For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures.

And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise.

So what on Earth is going on?

Climate change sceptics, who passionately and consistently argue that man’s influence on our climate is overstated, say they saw it coming.

They argue that there are natural cycles, over which we have no control, that dictate how warm the planet is. But what is the evidence for this?

During the last few decades of the 20th Century, our planet did warm quickly.

Sceptics argue that the warming we observed was down to the energy from the Sun increasing. After all 98% of the Earth’s warmth comes from the Sun.

But research conducted two years ago, and published by the Royal Society, seemed to rule out solar influences.

The scientists’ main approach was simple: to look at solar output and cosmic ray intensity over the last 30-40 years, and compare those trends with the graph for global average surface temperature.

And the results were clear. “Warming in the last 20 to 40 years can’t have been caused by solar activity,” said Dr Piers Forster from Leeds University, a leading contributor to this year’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

But one solar scientist Piers Corbyn from Weatheraction, a company specialising in long range weather forecasting, disagrees.

He claims that solar charged particles impact us far more than is currently accepted, so much so he says that they are almost entirely responsible for what happens to global temperatures.

He is so excited by what he has discovered that he plans to tell the international scientific community at a conference in London at the end of the month.

If proved correct, this could revolutionise the whole subject.

Ocean cycles

What is really interesting at the moment is what is happening to our oceans. They are the Earth’s great heat stores.

According to research conducted by Professor Don Easterbrook from Western Washington University last November, the oceans and global temperatures are correlated.

The oceans, he says, have a cycle in which they warm and cool cyclically. The most important one is the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).

For much of the 1980s and 1990s, it was in a positive cycle, that means warmer than average. And observations have revealed that global temperatures were warm too.

But in the last few years it has been losing its warmth and has recently started to cool down.

These cycles in the past have lasted for nearly 30 years.

So could global temperatures follow? The global cooling from 1945 to 1977 coincided with one of these cold Pacific cycles.

Professor Easterbrook says: “The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling.”

So what does it all mean? Climate change sceptics argue that this is evidence that they have been right all along.

They say there are so many other natural causes for warming and cooling, that even if man is warming the planet, it is a small part compared with nature.

But those scientists who are equally passionate about man’s influence on global warming argue that their science is solid.

The UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre, responsible for future climate predictions, says it incorporates solar variation and ocean cycles into its climate models, and that they are nothing new.

In fact, the centre says they are just two of the whole host of known factors that influence global temperatures – all of which are accounted for by its models.

In addition, say Met Office scientists, temperatures have never increased in a straight line, and there will always be periods of slower warming, or even temporary cooling.

What is crucial, they say, is the long-term trend in global temperatures. And that, according to the Met office data, is clearly up.

To confuse the issue even further, last month Mojib Latif, a member of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) says that we may indeed be in a period of cooling worldwide temperatures that could last another 10-20 years.

Professor Latif is based at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University in Germany and is one of the world’s top climate modellers.

But he makes it clear that he has not become a sceptic; he believes that this cooling will be temporary, before the overwhelming force of man-made global warming reasserts itself.

So what can we expect in the next few years?

Both sides have very different forecasts. The Met Office says that warming is set to resume quickly and strongly.

It predicts that from 2010 to 2015 at least half the years will be hotter than the current hottest year on record (1998).

Sceptics disagree. They insist it is unlikely that temperatures will reach the dizzy heights of 1998 until 2030 at the earliest. It is possible, they say, that because of ocean and solar cycles a period of global cooling is more likely.

One thing is for sure. It seems the debate about what is causing global warming is far from over. Indeed some would say it is hotting up.

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9 responses

11 10 2009
DCG

Global warming is a joke! My dad is in MT right now and yesterday the low was 3 degrees – 3 degrees in October!

These marxists-loving global warming fools only want to control our lifes through taxes.

11 10 2009
littlemissmuffin

The Colorado Rockies had to postpone their playoff game yesterday because of snow.

Deb, you know TPTB are trying to trick the uninformed by changing the name from global warming to climate change. How stupid do they think we are? Just because you change the name doesn’t mean we’re going to fall for your scheme. Oh, and RINO Graham from SC is hopping on the Cap & Tax bandwagon. He’s a total joke! I could make a list of the people’s voices who instantly require me to hit the mute button, and Graham would be near the top of the list.

Hope your Dad stays warm. I cannot imagine 3 degree weather. I would definitely have to hibernate. 🙂

11 10 2009
DCG

Graham pisses me off…Thought he was sane but I guess not. I’m so sick of these RINOs!!!

Dad will be fine…staying inside and watching football all day!

12 10 2009
jstults

I think the claims of ‘global cooling’ are a bit premature. Just look at the data.

12 10 2009
giovanniworld

jstults,

The opposite of Global Warming is Global Cooling, and we know that we have NOT been warming, sooooo……

If you want to argue the details of the science I suggest you go here… http://wattsupwiththat.com/ The owner of this blog has been consistent with taking NO sides in the argument about AGW, but his info is always fair and accurate.

Gio-

12 10 2009
jstults

I suppose that makes a certain sort of sense in a world where there are only two choices and no measurement uncertainty. Here in the real world there’s noise in physical measurements, and the temps could be trending up, trending down or staying the same, sooo…. I’m not sure what your point is.

My only point is, the recent data look to be well within the prediction interval of the trend since 1880 (that’s all the data NASA posts), take a look at the graph I posted, I’m not disputing any science, just applying simple linear regression and some common sense.

Claims of global cooling based on the last few years of data are about as silly as the prophecies of impending doom from the extreme AGW crowd.

Thanks for the link, looks like an interesting site.

12 10 2009
Dave

Whether the planet is warming, cooling, or remaining stagnant temperature-wise, man had absolutely nothing to do with it, and therefore can do nothing about it.

Its time this hideous fraud was put to rest once and for all.

Besides, I sweated my ass off in a black ’98 Nissan Maxima for four summers here in Hotlanta because of it’s post-freon AC system which these mindless idiots forced on us all.

LOL-These people owe me.

-Dave

12 10 2009
giovanniworld

Dave,

What’s your price of loyalty, an air-conditioner?
😉

Gio-

12 10 2009
Dave

Gio,

LOL.

-Dave

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